By buckeye 
A friend asked me, “What do you think about the Philadelphia Union vs. Columbus Crew game?”
I said, “Instead of guessing based on feelings, let’s look at the actual data. I’m not someone who bets every day, but making decisions based on information is better than guessing blindly.” So I opened my computer and checked the recent performances of both teams to see if I could find anything others might have missed.
I started by looking at their last five games. The important thing wasn’t who won, but how they played.
The Philadelphia Union conceded 10 goals in those five games, an average of two per game.
The Columbus Crew only conceded four, showing much more solid defense.
This alone made me think that the Philadelphia defense might not hold up.
There are a lot of impressive stats online, such as 80% possession, but that doesn’t mean anything if you don’t score.
I only care about three things:
First, can they hit the target?
Second, how good is their set-piece defense?
Third, can they score first in the first half?
These are the things that really affect the outcome of a game.
I checked the number of shots on target—that is, shots that were actually aimed at the goal and could have resulted in a goal.
Columbus Crew averaged 6.2 shots on target per game, which is a lot of opportunities.
Philadelphia Union only had 3.8, which is almost half as many.
This shows that their offense is not very efficient, and just having a lot of shots is useless.
Another key point is corner kicks and free kicks.
In the last 40% of their games, 40% of the Philadelphia Union’s goals were scored by their opponents from corner kicks or free kicks.
On the other hand, only 15% of Columbus’ goals were scored from set pieces.
That’s a huge difference. As long as their opponents can take advantage of corner kicks, Philadelphia is in danger.
I also noticed a detail:
The Philadelphia Union have failed to score in the first half of their last seven matches.
Meanwhile, Columbus have scored in the first half of three of their last four matches.
This indicates they get into the game faster and can apply pressure to the opposition in the early stages.
Many people think that Philadelphia has the home field advantage and should be better.
But the data doesn’t agree.
Their defense is poor, their offense is slow, and they have many set piece weaknesses.
Although the fans are loud, cheering can’t make up for the problems on the field.
The odds say they might win, but looking at the data, I think they are more likely to lose.
Based on this information, I decided to place only two small bets:
One is that Columbus Crew will win;
The other is that there will be more than 2.5 goals in the entire game.
Why?
Because their offense is strong and Philadelphia’s defense is weak, so they are likely to score at least two goals;
Even if Philadelphia scores one goal, it won’t change the outcome.
I didn’t combine several games into one bet.
That’s too risky. If one game ends in an upset, you lose everything.
I just made a simple judgment based on the data for this game.
I knew where the problem was, so I focused on that point.
The final score was 3-1, with Columbus winning.
Two of the three goals were scored from open play, which shows that their offense was indeed good.
The other goal was a header from a corner kick, which hit Philadelphia’s weak spot.
Philadelphia only scored one goal in the last few minutes, which had no bearing on the outcome of the game.
When I saw the goal from the corner kick, I felt that my previous analysis had not been in vain.
Many people only look at star players, home field advantage, and reputation, but what really determines the outcome of a game is often the unremarkable statistics.
Defensive weaknesses, set piece ability, and the pace of the first half—these are the key factors.
If you want to use data to make judgments, don’t be fooled by superficial information.
Focus on:
Who is more accurate in their shots?
Who is more likely to concede from set pieces?
Which team can get into the game earlier?
Understanding these things is far more useful than listening to others talk nonsense.
That coffee I drank while watching the game was really terrible.
But since I guessed the outcome correctly, I’m still in a good mood.
florida