How to analyze Necaxa vs Club Tigres statistics? (Simple guide for beginners)

Yesterday, I turned on my phone to watch the Necaxa vs. Tigres game.
I didn’t want to just listen to the commentary and guess what was happening, so I wanted to look up some data myself.
But at first, I had no idea where to start.
There were so many web pages and numbers flying around that it made my head spin.
Later, I realized that I didn’t need to look at too much; I just needed to focus on the key points.

The first thing I did was check their last five games.
I didn’t look at who won, but how they played.
I typed “Necaxa recent games statistics” into the search bar, and several websites popped up.
I picked the first three and wrote down the basic numbers:
for example, how many shots on goal, how many balls they controlled, and how many passes they made.

I didn’t use any advanced software, just an old notebook.
I drew a line, wrote “Necaxa” on the left and “Tigers” on the right.
I filled it in like a checklist:
number of shots, number of corner kicks, number of yellow cards.
My handwriting wasn’t very neat, but as long as I could read it, it was fine.

Many people like to look at ball possession, such as “this team has 60% possession.”
It sounds impressive, but if you don’t shoot, it doesn’t matter how much possession you have.
So I don’t pay much attention to that.
I only look at three things:
Who shoots more? Who has more corner kicks? Who plays particularly poorly away from home?

I noticed something interesting:
The Tigers have averaged 13 shots on goal per game at home recently.
But when they play away, that number drops to around 9.
This shows that they are not as aggressive on offense when they are away from home.
Although they are still slightly better than Necaxa, their advantage is much smaller.

I also noticed that Necaxa has about 4 corner kicks per game,
while the Tigers have 6, which is half more than them.
More corner kicks mean more defensive pressure on the opponent, which makes it easier for them to make mistakes.
Moreover, corner kicks and free kicks often lead to direct goals,
especially when both teams are not very stable, making it easier to score in the chaos.

Necaxa has received a lot of cards in recent games, especially for fouls near the penalty area.
This could give the opponent a free kick, which could lead to a direct shot if the position is good.
Although the Tigers have a strong offense, if their rhythm is constantly disrupted by fouls,

they may not play well. These small details are not visible in the score.

At first, I compared the average number of shots and thought the Tigers would definitely win.
But then I thought, no, that’s not right.
Averages can be deceiving.
For example, the Tigers play well at home but poorly away, so the average looks “stable.”
So you have to look at where they’re playing, not just one number.

After reading all this, I have a rough idea:
The Tigers are stronger on offense and are likely to score.
However, Necaxa is playing at home, and their opponents are not in good form away from home,
so they should be able to hold out for a while.
The final score is unlikely to be a big one, but rather 2-1 or 2-2.

I know that data is not magic and cannot predict the score with 100% accuracy.
But it can help me see trends.
For example, which team has been in poor form recently, and which team is prone to conceding goals from set pieces.
Looking at these things over the long term is much more reliable than relying on luck every time.

This time, I didn’t look at the referee’s information.
Later, I heard that the referee who officiated this game was very fond of giving cards
and often awarded penalties.
If I had known this earlier, I might have paid more attention to who was prone to committing fouls.
Next time I check the data, I will also add the referee’s habits.

You don’t need to understand complex statistics to understand a game.
Just remember three points:

1. Look at the actual performance in recent matches, don’t believe rumors;
2. Pay attention to shots on goal, corner kicks, and fouls—these are the factors that directly impact goals;
3. Distinguish between home and away games, don’t be fooled by averages.
   By doing these things, you’ll develop your own judgment when watching matches, rather than just relying on what others say.