By 
My Frustrating Journey with Football Stats
Honestly, predicting football scores feels like trying to read tea leaves sometimes. But this time, I wanted to get smart about the Crystal Palace versus Manchester City match, so I decided to dig into the stats headfirst.
First thing I did? I grabbed a notepad and fired up my laptop. I went back several seasons, looking at every single game Palace played at home against City. Man, it was a slog! Coffee went cold, my back started aching – typical stats grind.
After scribbling down all the results, goals, wins, draws – the whole messy pile of numbers – I started spotting things that kept happening. Like, patterns popping up whether City were flying high or having a wobble. That’s when I zeroed in on these five big trends everyone seems to ignore:
- Trend 1: Palace, at home, even when they lose, they usually squeeze one goal past the keeper. Doesn’t matter how good City’s defence is that year.
- Trend 2: City almost always score at least two, home or away. Seriously, check it yourself!
- Trend 3: If Palace managed a draw the last time City visited, the next game there’s like an 80% chance City come out absolutely flying, wanting revenge.
- Trend 4: Roy Hodgson’s teams love parking the bus late on against big teams. Expect Palace to hold on tight after the 75th minute if the scoreline is close.
- Trend 5: Stats show City pull ahead around the 60-70 minute mark way more often than you’d think. Teams just run out of steam trying to keep up.
Putting it all together was where the magic (or madness?) happened. Looking at Trend 1 and 2 – Palace scoring once, City scoring at least twice. Factor in the revenge angle from Trend 3 after last season’s result. Then, seeing how Palace might hang on late but City often breaks through later… my scrappy prediction model kept pointing towards City 3 – Palace 1. Seems straightforward now, but it took hours staring at those numbers before it clicked!
Will it happen? Who knows! But basing it on what actually keeps happening instead of just gut feeling feels way smarter. We’ll see on game day if my trends hold up!