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Alright, so yesterday I was staring at this Necaxa vs Tigres matchup and thought, “Man, I wanna understand what the stats really mean before kickoff.” Felt totally lost at first though.
Grabbing the raw numbers
First thing? I hunted down basic stats after their last five games. Just googled “Necaxa recent stats” and “Tigres recent stats”. Screenshotted tables showing stuff like average shots per game, possession percentage, and pass accuracy. Didn’t care about fancy sources – literally used the first three sites that popped up.
My trash notebook method
Dusted off this old notepad and drew two fat columns:
- LEFT SIDE: Necaxa stuff I care about – shots on target, corner kicks, yellow cards
- RIGHT SIDE: Same thing for Tigres but added “goals conceded” cause rumors say their defense wobbles
Filled it in like grocery shopping list:
- Necaxa avg. shots: 8 Tigres avg. shots: 13
- Necaxa corners: 4 per game Tigres: 6
- Etc. Messy handwriting but kept it stupid simple.
The coffee spill moment
Here’s where I screwed up – compared averages straight across like dummy. Almost spilled coffee realizing “possession means squat if they don’t shoot!” So circled three things actually matter:
- Who shoots more?
- Who forces more corners (set pieces = chaos!)
- Which team’s stats change massively home vs away?
Tigres’ away shots dropped by like 30% last month. That felt important.
Gut check time
Stared at my chicken scratch notes. Thought: “If Tigres shoot way more but Necaxa gets more cards near box… maybe free kick chances?” Then scribbled prediction below: “Tigres win but messy, both teams score.” Didn’t overcomplicate.
Anyway, stats ain’t crystal balls. Just helps spot patterns if you track simple things consistently. Next time I’m adding referee stats – heard that dude gives penalties like candy.